Pannaree Boonyuen: Fall armyworm infestation and future likelihood of spread due to environmental change in maize-cropping regions of Kenya

Fall armyworm infestation and future likelihood of spread due to environmental change in maize-cropping regions of Kenya

Fall armyworm (FAW), a detrimental pest in maize fields, is an on-going issue in several countries. A project under RHUL’s department of geography utilised an ecological modelling, Maximum entropy model with publicly accessible climate datasets (such as satellite-remotely sensed data ERA5-land product) and FAW observations to predict habitat suitability of these pest and future spread based on alternative future scenarios of climate. The team showed that although only 10.6% of areas had current moderate to high FAW suitability, the high maize-yielding areas constituted the greater part of this percentage, and the future map point to rising threats in Kenya’s maize highest-yielding areas in highland and moist transitional areas. These findings, therefore, underscore the importance of embedding pest risk forecasting into Kenya’s broader food security strategy. 

Read the full article: https://www.cabidigitallibrary.org/doi/full/10.1079/ab.2026.0007

Credit: Boonyuen, Pannaree and Ariya, George and Paul, Jonathan D. and Cole, Jennifer, ab.2026.0007, CABI Agriculture and Bioscience, doi:10.1079/ab.2026.0007, CABI, Fall armyworm infestation and future likelihood of spread due to environmental change in maize-cropping regions of Kenya, (2026)

The team provide special thanks to the collection of FAW observations from CABI (Centre for Agriculture and Bioscience International, https://www.cabi.org/). The team also had a chance to present the research to the CABI members and received valuable feedback from them.